How to avoid being sucked into the vortex of Schedule Variance Analysis: Part One

Welcome to the Bermuda Triangle of project management, where even the best PM’s can get lost and fired along the way.  Writing a schedule variance analysis for a certified EVMS can be painful, much like a love triangle.  You must please the client, your management, and the project—all while trying to keep the political fire under control.  The project is in hot water and you have to ease the minds of your management and the client, but give it enough teeth in order to get the assistance you may need to get the project back on track, such as additional resources.  The client wants ALL the details, while management does not want you to share any of the dirty laundry, and the poor project just needs some tender loving care to get back on track.  So how do you navigate these turbulent waters?

Simple.  Be specific when writing the reasons, impacts, and corrective actions.  Do not add unnecessary information or lay blame—just stick to the facts.  Identify the tasks behind schedule, provide a brief reason, and then focus on the impact to the project and the corrective actions being taken.  And the number one mistake I see in schedule variance analysis is confusing cost with schedule.  For example, if any part of the explanation for the variance has the word “cost” in it, you’re headed in the wrong direction.  An overrun in cost is not even part of the schedule variance equation!  You’re only looking at how much work was scheduled compared to what was done.  Also, remember that you cannot take earned value performance for work that is not in the baseline. 

Sometimes poor variance write-ups are due to missing the real cause of the variance.  Finding the correct cause can often lead to the appropriate impact and corrective action.  So, if you’re really struggling with identifying the cause of the variance, remember, possible schedule variance (SV) causes include:

• Poor baseline schedule (does it reflect reality?)
• Subcontractor/vendor cannot deliver when needed
• More/less effort than planned (be specific)
• Insufficient resources (staffing)
• Labor disputes/work stoppage,
• Resource availability (is it there when I need it?)
• Requirement changes 

All of the above examples are issues that can directly affect the earned value realized by the project.  If you have gone to the trouble to implement the elements of EVMS, at least be sure to maintain its integrity with strong schedule variance analysis.

This is part one of a two part series on variance analysis.   Part Two takes a look at some real world examples and examine why they are good or bad variance write-ups.   

Click here to view : Part Two of “How to avoid being sucked into the vortex of Schedule Variance Analysis”

Next week we’ll tackle the CPI report and look at how to write a solid cost variance analysis. 

- Melissa Duncan (About Melissa)

Read the previous posting Earned Value Exposed: What has Your Earned Value Software Done for You Lately?

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Earned Value legend as there may be a few of us that don’t yet have this memorized…

PM=Project Manager

PC=Project Controls

CAM=Control Account Manager
CPI=Cost Performance Index

EVM=Earned Value Management

EVMS=Earned Value Management System
WBS=Work Breakdown Structure

OBS=Organizational Breakdown Structure
SPI=Schedule Performance Index
IPMR=Integrated Program Management Report